Selamat Tahun Baru Hijrah & Syamsiah

Selamat Tahun Baru Hijrah 1430 & 2009. Walaupun tahun depan diramal penuh cabaran, barangkali kita akan dapat untung @ rezki yang banyak. Salah satunya saya cadangkan pemikiran THINK BIG.

Dalam pada itu kita dapat berita sedih dari saudara kita di Palestin yang menerima bedilan tanpa henti Tel Aviv. Sehingga kini 300 korban syahid dan yang lain menderita & ketakutan. Sama-samalah kita mendoakan mereka

Dipondok kecil http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW-Mn_V7poQ&feature=related

Untukmu Palestin http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDwQLQrUkRE&feature=related

Challenges facing for change

Challenges facing for change

1. Withdrawal troops from Iraq. Obama critics war on Iraq while he deliver his keynotes speech at Democratic party's annual convention in Boston in 2004. In contras his running mate, Biden vote for Iraq invasion. Since invasion on Iraq, the US sucks thousand barrels of oil every day & sent it to America through Kuwait. Is really he want to drop troops while he gains this profit?
2. Jewish lobby on international issues. As I said in last article, Jewish Lobby groups has rooted in US policy maker for so long. To name a few - Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA). I mentioned this as I heard Obama – Biden will back to Democrate traditional policy which isolate Israel from his policy maker. Its sounds good to Muslim world but the fact is that is he really or only rhetoric? He visited Tel Aviv while campaign and vows support for Israel. “Jurusalem in undivided city” which mean Jurusalem will not share or given to Palestine. Jewish Lobby group involve in US policy maker in 360 angles. Direct, indirect, NGOs, academia society, rich foundation which funds US project
3. Israel – palestin issues. I wonder how he want to solve this insolvent issue. Hamas will continue fight as Israel is their origin land. The most moderate and accepted agreement, Oslo Accord end with blood. Yitzak Rabin won big majority in election and supported by major Jew shot after given half of West Bank, Gaza, & Baitulmaqdis to Palestin. Is Obama want to offer his body for bullet or ‘offer piece of land in Texas for state of Israel?’
4. New approach to Iran? In August, Tel Aviv is in tip – top condition to strike Iran’s nuclear facility. But Bush ‘not approve’ this as he feared security of ships crossing Gulf & other problems possible to appear. Israel leaders congratulate Obama’s victory while potential Prime Minister; Tzipi Livni warned him not to changed policy towards Iran drastically. Ahmadnejad also congratulate him hoping ‘new dawn’ as promises during campaign. Obama urged tougher sanction imposed on Iran but how to keep his promise ‘ready to meet Ahmanejad without condition’?
5. Clean energy & Big oil. In 1st time ever, current administration has 3 former oil’s bosses become top boss of White House. Bush himself, flanked by Dick Cheney (Halliburton Oil Co) & Condoleeza Rice (Chevron).Therefore Oil’s Lobby become very influence with administration. Eg Exxon Mobil’s profit 2007 is $40b is more than profit of combined CityGroup & Boeing AirBus. They not only gave excess to public land, sea, tax reduction and even war. (war on terror sponsored by Halliburton). Strategist predicted Obama will sign any treaty on environment (Kyoto Protocol, etc.). Obama has strong passionate on this issue as well as Iraq War. But he will facing oil’s lobby which very strong to influence Congress by funding or anything else. Clean energy means reducing oil business.

Is Obama’s victory gain from his ideology or slap for Bush Doctrine?

Cabaran menghadapi CHANGE

Para strategis menanti dengan penuh minat senarai anggota Kabinet Obama yang sepatutnya diumum Krismas lalu. Yang pasti, Emanuel Rahm bakal mengetuai polisi luar, Robert Gates ketua pasukan tentera dan Hillary Rodham Clinton adalah payung utama Jabatan Negara. Susunan ini bercampur dengan parti lawan & duri dalam daging Obama sendiri. Saya membuat hipotesis awal; Obama melantik mereka (ada diantaranya NeoCon) untuk mengaburi & mendapat sokongan ahli Kongres pro-Israel (yang tentunya amat berpengaruh) kerana awalnya Obama dilihat seorang yang anti – Israel. Apapun saya mengupas serba sedikit cabaran CHANGE.

1. Pengunduran tentera dari Iraq. Obama mengkritik perang Iraq pertama kalinya ketika menyampaikan ucapan pembukaan perhinpunan tahunan Parti Demokratik di Boston pada 2004. Sebaliknya teman seperjuangannya, Biden mengundi usul penaklukan Iraq. Sejak penaklukan Iraq US mengepam beribu tong minyak setiap hari & menghantarnya ke Amerika melalui Kuwait. Bersungguhkah dia akan menhantar pulang tentera dalam pada dia mendapat manfaat?
2. Jewish Lobby dalam isu antarabangsa. Seperti yang saya katakan dalam artikel terdahulu kumpulan Pelobi Yahudi telah berakar dalam polisi US sekian lama. Untuk menamakan beberapa; Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA), ----. Saya menekankan hal ini kerana saya mendengar Obama – Biden akan kembali kepada dasar trasional Demokrat yang mengasingkan Israel dari pembuat polisinya. Dengar macam sedap kepada Dunia Islam tetapi apakah ini benar atau sekadar retorik? Dia melawat Tel Aviv semasa kempen dan berikrar menyokong Israel. “Jurusalem adalah Bandar yang tidak boleh dibahagikan” bermakna Jurusalem tidak akan dikongsi atau diberi kepada Palestin.
3. Isu Israel – Palestin. Saya kagum bagaimana dia hendak menyelesaikan masalah tertunggak ini. Hamas akan terus berjuang kerana Israel adalah tanah asal mereka. Yitzak Rabin memenangi majoriti besar dalam pilihanraya & disokong majoriti Yahudi ditembak selepas memberi separuh Tebing Barat, Gaza & Baitulmaqdis kepada Palestin. Adakah Obama akan menadah tubuhnya pada peluru atau ‘menawarkan tanah di Texas untuk negara Israel’?
4. Pendekatan baru kepada Iran? Pada Ogos lalu, Tel Aviv dalam keadaan Tip – Top untuk menyerang loji nuklear Iran. Tapi Bush ‘tidak membenarkan’ kerana bimbang keselamatan kapal dagangnya yang melalui Teluk & masalah lain yang bakal menyusul. Pemimpin Israel mengucapkan tahniah atas kemenangan Obama sementara perdana menteri yang berpotensi, Tzipi Livni memberi amaran untuk tidak mengubah dasarnya terhadap Iran secara drastik. Dapat kita fahami Israel sedaya upaya akan menghancurkan Iran yang berpotensi mengalahkannya kelak (samada dengan menaja kumpulan ‘pengganas’, pembinaan senjata nuklear atau sebagainya). Prinsip yang bertentangan dengan janjinya dalam pilihanraya untuk berunding dengan sesiapa sahaja tanpa syarat. Tetapi nampaknya Obama menggesa sekatan yang lebih ketat terhadap Iran.
5. Tenaga bersih & Big Oil. Sejarah pertama kalinya, dalam pentadbiran sekarang mempunyai 3 bekas bos minyak; Bush sendiri diapit Dick Cheney (Halliburton) & Condoleeza Rice (Chevron). Oleh itu syarikat minyak sangat berpengaruh dalam pentadbiran. Contohnya Exxon Mobil mempunyai keuntungan $40b, lebih tinggi jika untung Citi Group & Boeing AirBus digabungkan. Mereka tidak sahaja diberikan tanah awam, laut, pengurangan cukai, malah perang (perang memerangi ‘keganasan’ ditaja oleh Halliburton). Strategis meramalkan Obama tidak akan menandatangani persefahaman HIJAU (Kyoto dsb). Obama sangat berminat dengan isu ini seperti perang Iraq tetapi terpaksa berhadapan dengan pelobi minyak yang sangat kuat pengaruhnya terhadap Kongres (samada melalui tajaan pilihanraya dsb). Tenaga bersih bermakna mengurangkan pendapatan syarikat minyak.

Adakah kemenangan Obama kerana orang sukakannya atau tamparan daripada Bush's Doctrine?

BUKAN KERANA PANGKAT

BUKAN KERANA PANGKAT

TUN DR ISMAIL & MASANYA

Terjemahan

The Reluctant Politician

Tun Dr Ismail & His Time

Saya selesai membaca buku ini tahun lepas. buku yang bagus untuk bacaan generasi selepas Tun. Many untelling story diceritakan. Tetapi bahasa terlalu ilmiah dan tidak sastera menyebabkan pembacaan menjadi mendatar / plain. Maklumlah penulis ISEAS. Pensyarah saya cakap bukan senang nak published buku kat ISEAS ni. Jadi kupasan Felo nya mesti lah ultra akademik.

Selamat membaca.

Muka Depan

Penulis, Ooi Kee Beng (ingatkan dah tua) amat kritikal dalam karyanya. ni bukan cencaluk belacan!

Anak sulong Tun, Taufik

Tun Musa Hitam diberi penghormatan memberi ucaptama ketika merasmikan buku ini. Musa Hitam antara orang kepercayaan Tun walaupun dia terlibat dalam gerakan anti - Tunku. jaga anak muda ni baik - baik. kita perlukannya kelak- kata Tun pada Duta Malaysia ke London ketika ternampak Musa di Pejabat Kedutaan

3 beranak yang cemerlang; Sulaiman(Menteri KDN), Rahman Yaasin (Speaker Dewan Negara pertama), & Ismail (Menteri Luar)

Ismail ketika melawat Australia singgah di Universiti New England, Armidle melihat anaknya, Taufik

kenangan 22 sept 1979

Menjadi Duta ke Amerika yang pertama selepas merdeka melawat Setiausaha Negara, John FosterDulles

WIRA TAK DIDENDANG. ORANG YANG AMAT BERJASA PADA NEGARA. SEMOGA ALLAH MENGAMPUNKAN DOSA TUN & MELETAKKAN ROHNYA DIKALANGAN ORANG YANG BERIMAN.

MAKAN MALAM TAHUNAN HONDA 2008

LE MARQUEE,

PALACE OF GOLDEN HORSES

20 DIS 2008

Dewan Makan dari padang rumput menjadi ballroom Le Marquee

Mustakim MAY

bergambar dengan keta bos, Hj Azhar

kengangan dengan Exremely Working Horlick Man, Ikuo Kanazawa San. Dia masuk ofis kul 6.30 pg & pulang ke Hotel Equotorial kul 1 pg, sentiasa senyum & HELLO setiap hari

THE US RECESSION

1. I’m sure most of us heard about the looming of US recession. I want to share my piece knowledge on this issue. I encourage readers to share discussion with me. America believes on capitalist economic system. Yet turn to liberal & lassie fair. This stated government cannot interfere on market flow & if problem occur let market resolve itself.
2. The US hit by small depression in 2003. But this almost not impact New York Stock Exchange because currently market can absorb losses. Bush invaded Iraq using Federal Reserve several hundred million dollar yet he won 2004 election slightly.
3. As Bush desired to see The Shock & Awe theatre (war of my father) the US must take the responsibility. In fact whole world become tumble. War increased US debt from US$5.8 trillion in 2001 to US$9.2 trillion in January 2008 & now stood at US$14 trillion. War in Iraq costing US$440 b so far & until 2010 it will needs US$618 b. But the war is not over even new president elected. Are really troops in Iraq removed? America gain thousand barrel oil everyday & shipping it through Kuwait. Or even removed 1 battalion we assume Obama fulfilled his promise? Notwhistanding new Secretary of Defense appointed by Obama vows 50 000 troops will deploy to Afghanistan until no dateline.
4. Realizing his economy shows signs worst, in January 08, Bush visits Arab countries lobbying Arab leader to pour it profit from oil to its economy. He predicted to excess US$300 b from OPEC countries gain from surge oil price. Arab banks urged to buy US treasury bonds & other markets. Also he proposed multibillion advanced arm deal with Gulf Arab states. Saudi reported to transact US$20 b deal.
5. Most important factor dragging US economy is involvement bank on subprime industry. Subprime is credit scheme for housing (mortgage), car etc. Debtor loaned to finance house / car even he is high risk of nonperforming loan. These are some critical condition regarding to subprime; he can get full loan
a. even this is 2nd or more debt
b. missing in pay back debt
c. Interest extremely high – 15% - 40% or more. More credit for higher interest.
Desperate person; illness, marry, jobless etc are risk debtor.
6. Banks permit such loan excessively & now we see it signs. Many debtor trap in nonperforming loan & become bankrupt. Banks sealed assets until it hold too much but lack of credit / liquidity. It reported 1 bank only has cash flow for operation only 24 hours. Giant age 150 years old, Lehman Brothers collapse while other banks (e.g. Merill Lych) bail out by government. Citi Group deficit US$10 b for 2007. Same problem spread in Europe. Bradford & Bringley (London), UniCredit Banca (Belgium) among the others.
7. In October Bush proposed US$700b for economy recovery plan. Strategies may wonder does this money exist. Local government deficit US$1.5b daily while many problems to funding admin. Former Presiden of Federal Bank, Alan Greenspan do not confident such amount can prevent US from recessed. Now Obama proposed another US$1.7 b aid for economy.
8. China & India are among massive US Dollar reserve holder. In January 2008 China reserve exceed US$ 1 trillion; at least US$470 b in US bonds. China estimated lose US$1.5 b this year if situation unmitigated. It actually start ‘help’ US to recover its economy in every angle.
9. We will face New Year with unmitigated disaster. Malaysian can’t say they are isolated because economy is cycle. US is our biggest export with trading exceed RM 100 b yearly. Other strategies implemented are encouraging trading with Arab countries, China, India & ASEAN. Lower reduction for Employee Provident Fund from 11% to 3% is to keep purchasing parity high albeit inflation is possible to appear. Lot of effort must be done as tremendous challenge; decrement price of oil (PETRONAS) commodity such as palm oil, rubber etc. Lower price mean lower profit gained yield less contribution to tax.

Versi Bahasa Malaysia
1. Saya yakin kebayakan kita mendengar kegusaran mengenai krisis ekonomi US. Saya ingin berkongsi sedikit pengetahuan saya mengenai hal ini. Saya menggalakkan pembaca berkongsi perbincangan dengan saya. Amerika percaya system ekonomi kapitalis. Akhirnya ia bertukar kepada liberal & pasaran bebas. Teori ini antara lain teori ini menyatakan kerajaan tidak perlu campur tangan dalam hal pasaran dan membiarkan ia menyelesaikan masalah pasaran sendiri.
2. US mula dihimpit tekanan ekonomi yang kecil pada 2003. Tetapi ini hampir tidak menjejaskan New York Stock Exchange kerana pasaran pada masa itu dapat menyerap kerugian. Bush menawan Iraq menggunakan Rezab Persekutuan beberapa ratus juta dollar berikutnya dia memenangi pilihanraya presiden 2004 dengan tipis.
3. Bush berkehendak menonton teater Shock & Awe (kejut & takut) US harus menanggung akibatnya. Sebenarnya seluruh dunia menjadi tidak menentu. Perang menaikkan hutang US dari US$ 5.8 trillion pada 2001 kepada US$9.2trillion pada January 2008 & sekarang US$ 14 trillion. Perang di Iraq telah menelan US$440 b & sehingga 2010 ia memerlukan US$618 b. Perang belum berakhir walaupun Presiden baru dipilih. Adakah benar tentera di Iraq akan diundurkan? Amerika menikmati beribu tong minyak sehari & mengeksportnya melalui Kuwait. Jika tidak pun pengunduran 1 batalion juga boleh dianggap Obama sudah memenuhi janjinya? Sementara itu Setiausaha Pertahanan yang baru dilantik Obama menyatakan akan 50 000 lagi tentera akan dikerah ke Afghanistan sehingga tiada tarikh ditentukan.
4. Menyedari ekonominya menunjukkan petunjuk buruk, pada januari 2008, Bush melawat Negara Arab melobi pemimpin Arab untuk menuang keuntungan minyak mereka ke ekonomi Amerika. Dia meramalkan mendapat manfaat US$300b dari Negara OPEC hasil keuntungan harga minyak yang melambung. Bank Arab digesa membeli bon perbenharaan & pasaran lain US. Juga dia mencadangkan penjualan multibillion senjata moden (termasuk model Tomahawk) dengan Negara Teluk Arab. Arab Saudi dilaporkan bakal membeli sejumlah US$ 20 b.
5. Faktor terpenting mengheret ekonomi US ialah penglibatan bank dalam industri subprime. Subprime ialah skim pinjaman untuk rumah, kereta dll. Penghutang meminjam untuk menanggung pembelian rumah / kereta dll walaupun dia berisiko sebagai penghutang tidak berbayar. Berikut beberapa syarat kritikal berkait masalah subprime; penghutang boleh mendapat pinjaman penuh
a. walaupun ini ialah pinjaman kedua atau lebih
b. terdapat kelewatan dalam pembayaran hutang lama
c. Faedah terlalu tinggi – 15% - 40% @ lebih. Lebih banyak hutang lebih tinggi faedahnya.
Orang yang terdesak; pesakit, berkahwin tiada pekerjaan dll adalah berisiko.
6. Bank mengeluarkan pinjaman ini terlalu banyak dan sekarang menunjukkan kesannya. Ramai penghutang terperangkap menjadi penghutang tidak berbayar & menjadi muflis. Bank mengambil gadaian / asset sehingga memegang terlalu banyak asset pekat tetapi kekurangan kredit / kecairan. Ada laporan sebuah bank hanya mempunyai kredit operasi hanya 24 jam. Gergasi 150 tahun, Lehman Brothers runtuh sementara bank – bank lain (contohnya Merill Lynch) diselamatkan kerajaan. Tambah memalukan bailout ini dibeli pada harga sebelum kerugian bukannya harga hangus (pre fire price). Jika dulu US mengherdik strategi Malaysia menghadapi krisis ekonomi 97, keadaannya tak ubah meludah kelangit jatuh ke muka sendiri. Citi Group difisit US$ 10 b untuk 2007. Masalah sama merebak ke Eropah antaranya Bradford & Bringley (London), UniCredit Banca (Belgium).
7. Pada oktober Bush mencadangkan Pelan Menyelamat Ekonomi bernilai US$ 700 b. Para strategis mungkin kehairanan tentang kewujudan duit ini ? Kerajaan tempatan kekurangan US$ 1.5 b sehari dengan banyak masalah membiayai pentadbirannya. Mantan Presiden Bank Persekutuan, Alan Greenspan tidak yakin jumlah ini akan menyekat US daripada malap. Sekarang Obama mencadangkan tambahan US$ 1.5 b bantuan ekonomi. Mampukah Obama memulihkan ekonomi US dengan sokongan padu selepas pilihanraya?
8. China & India antara penyimpan rizab dollar yang besar. Pada januari 2008 rizab simpaanan China melebihi US$ 1 trillion; sekurang – kurangnya US$ 470 b dalam bon US. China diramal bakal kerugian US$ 1.5 b tahun ini jika situasi terus buruk. Sebanarnya ia telah memulakan usaha ‘membantu’ US menyelamat ekonominya dalam setiap sudut.
9. Kita akan menghadapi tahun baru dengan bencana yang tidak terkawal ini. Rakyat Malaysia tidak boleh mengatakan mereka terasing kerana ekonomi ini berkait. US adalah pengksport terbesar dengan dagangan melebihi RM 100 b setahun. Strategi lain yang dijalankan ialah menggalakkan dagangan dengan Negara Arab, China, & ASEAN. Penyumbangan rendah kepada Kumpulan Simpanan Wang Pekerja (KWSP) dari 11% kepada 3% bertujuan mengekalkan kuasa beli rakyat walaupun masalah kenaikan harga (inflasi) boleh berlaku. Banyak usaha perlu dilakukan dalam menghapi cabaran sukar; penurunan harga minyak (PETRONAS), komoditi seperti kelapa sawit getah dsb. Harga menurun beerti keuntungan menurun natijahnya pendapatan cukai menurun. Teruskan membeli keperluan dengan bijak & mulakan usahaniaga untuk mencipta kekayaan.

Abdul Azim b Abdul Manaf, 18 dis 08.

MAJLIS BERTUNANG SAKINAH BT ABDUL MANAF

6 DISEMBER 2008; SABTU

HANTARAN PEREMPUAN

HAA TUU DEMO SAMPEEA DAAAHH...

HAJAT KAMI NAK PETIK BUNGA DITAMAN - HAA PETIK LA BANYAK KAT LUAR TU... BUNGA MUTAN TAKDE PASAL DAHANNYE DAH TEBANG.

AAEEEI BAPE HARGA CINCIN NI? CUBA TANYA CINA KEDAI TU...
ALAAA BUCUKK BAKAL MENANTU MAK
KAK AYA KAN MAIN SENYUM. NGILUU MALAM NANTI HAAA...

INDUK MENAHAN BAU BUSUUK @ ?

KENANGAN TERINDAH (SEBELUM KAWIN)

PAKJANG MENAMPILKAN GAYA LAIN DARI YANG LAIN SEMASA MEMOTONG KEK. GAYA BIASANYA PAKAI KAIN PELIKAT TANPA BAJU DENGAN KAIN LAP DIBAHU. PAKCIK CUBA MENJADI KAMERA MAN (TAPI PAKAI HP) SAMBIL MAKJANG MEMERHATI DENGAN KHUSYUK

Anak Negro Jadi Tuan Kulit Putih

1. Akhirnya keputusan pilihanraya Presiden US diketahui. Dunia bersorak gembira meraikan kemenangan Obama. Warga kulit hitam yang dahulunya ditindas warga kulit putih menangis melihat ucapan sulong Obama.


2. Persaingan memancing undi amat sengit. Laporan akhbar menyatakan pungutan suara Obama mendahului Mc Cain. Obama pastinya tidak mahu bersedap - sedap dengan laporan ini lebih - lebih lagi dia pesaingnya bukan kecil anak.


3. Obama dengan imej toleransi & profesional berjaya memikat sokongan kumpulan pertengahan (moderate), orang muda, & kumpulan terpelajar dengan slogannya yang popular - CHANGE ; Yes We Can! Obama dibantu penasihat dari universiti dilihat lebih akademia. Mengukuhkan reputasi, bekas Setiausaha Negara, Collin Powell menyertainya.


4. Mc Cain pula dengan imej veteran perang & senior staf pentadbir memikat sokongan kumpulan konsovertif (enggan berubah), kupulan warga emas, & kumpulan atasan / elitis. Dengan slogan COUNTRY FIRST, dia dilihat orang yang masak dengan kepimpinan & urusan White House / Oval Office. Tidak kurang hebatnya, Mc Cain juga dibantu dengan mantan orang kuat White House Henry Kissingger & Lawrence Eagleburger; bekas Setiausaha Negara manakala Richard Armitage bekas penolong Powell.


5. Begitu daring suasana kempen kali ini. Penganalisis & strategis meneliti siri debat dengan penuh minat kerana pertembungan kali ini akan mencorak landskap ekonomi & politik dunia. Tumpuan utama diberikan dalam 2 isu utama; ekonomi & dasar luar.


6. Obama menampakkan sikap berlembut dengan Iran, Cuba & seteru politik Amerika tetapi tidak kepada Pakistan. Manakala Mc Cain meneruskan dasar unilateral, konsovertif & Bush's Doctrine.


7. Obama menampakkan harapan tidak akan berlaku perang seterusnya bahkan dia telah menyediakan pelan pengunduran tentera dari Iraq. Tetapi tentera ini akan dihantar ke Afghanistan untuk memburu Osama & Taliban. Dia & Mc Cain juga telah memberikan undi menyokong belanjawan tentera 2009 berjumlah US$612b yang tujuan utamanya menampung Perang Iraq & Afghan. Dimana pendiriannya yang sebenar?


8. Mc Cain tetap berpendirian unilateral & akan meneruskan Bush's Doctrine. Perang akan menjana ekonomi. Jika Iran dapat ditawan sumber minyak akan tetap terjamin (seperti yang dilakukan kepada Iraq). Jika Mc Cain menang, apakah Mc Cain akan komited berperang atau depresi ekonomi akan memaksanya memikirkan hal dalaman sahaja? Sebuah kapal perang telah dihantar ke Georgia atas 'misi kemanusiaan'. 1000 Humvee sedang dipasang di Pakistan untuk dikerjakan ke Afghan. Senjata & misil bernilai puluhan juta US$ dijual ke Taiwan atas inisiatif Wolfowitz dengan niat menggalakkan perlumbaan senjata dengan China.


9. Dalam isu Israel - Palestin kedua-dua calon sekata - We Stand With Israel. Presiden US tidak boleh menentang dasar sedia ada. Dalam sejarah Presiden US, hanya seorang sahaja Presiden yang menentang Israel. Tidak lama kemudian dia dipaksa meletakkan jawatan setelah melalui pelbagai provokasi oleh kumpulan pelobi Yahudi (Jewish Lobby).


10. Calon Presiden juga harus mendapat sokongan kuat pelobi Yahudi atas sebab kuasa undi Yahudi, dana kempen pilihanraya & kegiatan pelobi sendiri yang telah berakar umbi dalam pentadbiran US.


11. Sebenarnya rakyat Amerika tidak begitu gemar keluar mengundi. Peratus keluar mengundi biasanya pada lingkungan 40% - 50% sahaja. Hanya pilihanraya 2004 & kali ini peratusnya mencapai 55%. Yang tidak melepaskan peluang menundi ialah yahudi. Mereka akan 'dinasihati" oleh strategis Jewish Lobby mana calon yang perlu dipilih.


12. Dana kempen pilihanraya banyaknya datang dari usahawan yahudi. Dilaporkan pada pilihanraya 2004, 55% dari dana kempen Republikan diterima dari syarikat yahudi manakala Demokrat 40%.


13. Intelligent & strategis Jewish Lobby telah lama bertapak, berakar & memainkan peranan penting dalam 'meansihati Kongres' & lain - lain hal pentadbiran US.


14. Dapat kita perhatikan dalam isu Israel ini amat sukar dipisahkan dalam perjalanan politik seorang Presiden US. Bahkan untuk mengukuhkan pendirian calon, ia perlu melawat Israael supaya mereka dapat merasakan sendiri suasana keselamatan negara Yahudi. dan ini yang dilakukan setiap calon Presiden termasuk Obama sendiri.


15. Para penganalisis berpendapat Demokrat akan kembali pada dasarnya tradisinya yang mengasingkan Israel dari pentadbiran. Tetapi adakah mungkin?


16. Dalam hal ekonomi kedua - dua calon gagal menunjukkan pelan sebenar mengukuhkan ekonomi. Barangkali mereka ingin menyembunyikan hakikat yang Amerika bakal menghadapi recessi, depressi dan bakal menyusul hyper inflasi. Ini diakui oleh bekas Gabenor Bank Pusat, Alan Greenspan; katanya dana US$700b tak mungkin dapat menyekat recessi. (Alan Greenspan dianngap Tuhan Ekonomi / God of Economy kerana pengalamannya)


17. Lain - lain hal yang dicanang Obama ialah tenaga alternatif (white energy) dan blue energy (elektrik). Penemuan ni memakan masa dan pelaburan walaupun tidak mustahil. Tetapi tidak ditentukan peruntukannya.


18. Saya amat gembira dengan kemenangan Obama. Tetapi cakap lebih mudah dari melaksanakan. I hope he can convey his promises - C H A N G E - Yes We Can !

Maaf berita tak update

Sudah 2 minggu PDA saya rosak. Dengan ini sukar untuk saya meneliti berita, membuat draf dan lain-lain hal berkaitan IT. Blog juga sukar untuk diupdate kerana masa yang terhad dengan internet; memberi maklum balas, menanyakan kemuskilan pada yang pakar memilih berita & banyak hal yang perlu diselesaikan dalam masa 1jam30min dengan internet. Pilihanraya Presiden US, US Recession, masalah ekonomi Malaysia, & banyak lagi yang ingin dikongsikan dalam masa yang terhad. Bagaimanapun saya bersyukur kerana masih sempat membaca berita yang saya cetak.
Maaf Assalamualaikum

US Teruskan Ketenteraan Walaupun Menghadapi Resessi

Saya tak tahu nak bahasakan kebijaksanaan ahli Kongres US - Ultra Bijak / Maha Bijak @ Bodoh lagi Dungu. Dalam perbahasan & undian kali pertama bantuan menyelamat US$700b majoriti Kongres menolak usul ini kerana bimbang bantahan pembayar cukai. Pada 24 Sept 08 Kongres meluluskan bil peruntukan belanjawan pertahanan berjumlah US$612b. 392 undi menyokong & 39 menentang.

Belanjawan ini meliputi kos operasi di Iraq-Afghan, pembangunan misil baru, intelligence dll. Jika difokuskan kelengkapan ketenteraan; Misil nuklear dalam Jabatan Tenaga, Jabatan Negara, Kebajikan Pesara Tentera semua sekali melebihi trillion dollar setahun.

Dalam ucapan Setiausaha Pertahanan di Universiti Pertahanan Washington, Robert Gates berkata "pertahanan harus memahami had kuasa tempur dan pemimpin harus melihat teknologi dapat memenuhi keperluan medan perang" bermaksud perang akan terus menjadi komitmen utama mereka. Kekuatan misil & alat tempur bukan lagi pilihan perdaganan negara - negara 'bebas' seperti Malaysia, Iran Cuba dan sewaktu dengannya. Ini kerana misil dan alat tempur Amerika dikawal dengan source code. Fungsi source code ini ialah meng-disable kan alat tersebut dari berfungsi. Contohnya 8 unit Hornet F-18 yang dibeli TUDM tidak boleh membawa misil sama sekali. Termasuk misil uadara - udara AIM 120 yang dibeli dari Amerika hanya jadi perhiasan saja!
Paling teruk usul ini disokong juga oleh 2 calon Running President, Obama & Mc Cain. Bajet akan terus menaik setiap tahun. Tapi mencipta adakah lebih banyak misil akan mewujudkan keamanan dimuka bumi? Ekonomi Amerika diramal terus merosot kerana masalah inflasi akan menyusul selepas ini (stagnant + inflation = stagflation). Dengan tercetaknya dollar begitu banyak sehingga tidak bersandarkan nilai emas, masalah hyper inflasi pula akan menyusul. Dari komen, blog, majalah ekonomi & lain-lain sumber, saya meramalkan nilai dollar akan menyusut lagi apabila negara Arab menggunakan Euro. Dengan harga minyak mentah yang semakin menurun, kegiatan spekulasi yang didalangi broker Amerika terus mencatatkan kerugian; menurunnya hasil cukai kepada kerajaan. Jika Amerika terus bermain api dengan China, apa akan jadi jika China menjual kembali 1 trillion simpanan dollarnya?
Ikuti berita penuh dari Asia Times Online.

The US military's fallout shelter
By David Isenberg

WASHINGTON - Some people may think one consequence of the ongoing United States financial crisis would be increased pressure for cuts in military spending. But that is unlikely to happen. While the crisis will increase fiscal pressure to reduce military spending, as it is the largest pot of discretionary funding in the federal budget, other countervailing political factors will ensure that there likely will be no significant reduction. Consider that on September 24, during the fight over the Wall Street bailout, the House of Representatives passed by a vote of 392-39 a $612 billion defense authorization bill for 2009, which includes both baseline military spending and funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and other counter-terrorism operations. The fact that the bill was approved without public or congressional protest indicates there is unlikely to be any significant pressure to cut military or related national security spending. The latter category includes nuclear weapons spending at the Energy Department, plus the State Department, as well as Veterans Affairs, and the intelligence agencies. All together that totals exceeds a trillion dollars annually. It is a truism, but the primary reason for continued high levels of military spending is that the United States is at war. Unlike the situation at the end of the 1980s and early 1990s, no factors are comparable with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, which drove a significant reduction in US military spending. Today, the situation is reversed. The United States is fighting the "war on terror" and politically both the incumbent administration and the opposition party are reluctant to cut military spending at such a time. In fact, nothing in the campaign platforms of either Republican Senator John McCain or Democratic Senator Barack Obama suggests they plan to significantly reduce military spending. McCain says the United States must enlarge the size of its armed forces. That alone will guarantee that operational and support costs, traditionally one of the highest categories of US military spending, stay high. Likewise, Obama supports plans to increase the size of the army by 65,000 soldiers and the marines by 27,000 troops. Finally, there is the longstanding congressional tradition that by voting for more military spending, they are providing "jobs" for their economy, not to mention their constituents, as a more general Keynesian pump-priming mechanism. It is true, however, that some military officials see the administration-proposed financial bailout of Wall Street as a direct threat to the military budget. Pentagon comptroller Tina Jonas said the US financial crisis may lead to lower defense budgets and more public demand for accountability over spending. "Any crisis of this nature is going to affect - must affect - other federal spending," Jonas, the Defense Department's top money official since July 2004, said on September 26 in an interview on her last day in office. Any analysis that suggested defense budgets would escape impact was too sanguine, she added. Yet a few days later she said the US military wanted an increase of $57 billion in fiscal 2010, about 13.5% more than this year's budget of $514.3 billion. While that request would include costs that to date have been paid by supplemental appropriations it would still be a real increase. In the long term, another factor that could reduce spending is a step away from the technology heavy hardware which was a mainstay during former defense secretary's Donald Rumsfeld's tenure. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a speech on September 29 at the National Defense University in Washington that the military must understand the limits of combat power and its leaders must be skeptical that technology can bring order to the battlefield. He cautioned against efforts to reorganize the Pentagon around buzzwords like "transformation", and challenged those who advocate investing in smaller numbers of higher-technology weapons in a belief that war can be revolutionized. "Be modest about what military force can accomplish, and what technology can accomplish." Gates said the Pentagon had placed too much emphasis on high-technology weapons systems aimed at potential state adversaries such as China and Russia, which take years to develop. He noted that the 2009 budget contained more than $180 billion for such conventional systems. Given US military dominance in air, land and sea power, the Pentagon can safely shift away from building small numbers of highly advanced ships, aircraft and other systems and instead purchase larger quantities of simpler, cheaper equipment. Army secretary Pete Geren, a former four-term congressman from Texas, also cautioned last Monday that the proposed $700 billion rescue plan could take a toll on the army's budget in the coming years. The financial crisis could exacerbate the fact that defense budgets traditionally are cut drastically at the end of wars, he said. Because of its high personnel costs, the army does not have the flexibility of other services to spend on new weapons systems. Thus it will face substantial pressure to cut back on its troubled flagship modernization program, the Future Combat Systems, and its new helicopter programs. Last week, as it has each year since the mid-1990s, the US Army sent its "wish list" (in which it seeks to supplement its own budget with "extracurricular" money) that it, as well as the other services, sends to Congress each year after. Given that it bears the largest share of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the army only sought $3.9 billion. Although, when you take into account the amount by which the 2009 army budget already has been increased over and above the extrapolated 2001 plan for 2009 it is apparent that the army actually is seeking a $54.5 billion "wish list plus-up". Even so, the army leadership said it would seek larger overall budget requests in future years. Ironically, this indicates that the basis for each of the services' "plus-ups" is not war-related; instead they are an artifact of the post-September 11, 2001, political environment. Specifically, as noted above, in times of war politicians in the executive branch and Congress are willing to support a generally rising tide of defense spending, even when it is not spent on problem areas, such as a smaller force structure or reduced readiness. Even if the US withdraws a large number of its forces from Iraq relatively soon, the costs will continue to rise for some time. The war in Iraq will cost far more in the next year than the Iraq portion of that $68.6 billion Congress has provided in the in the new military. Thus, some time in 2009, the direct costs of the war there, that the Bush administration once predicted would cost perhaps $50-60 billion in total, will cost more than $800 billion, or $100 billion above the cost (in the best-case scenario) of the bailout of the financial system now being proposed in Washington. This excludes long-term costs such as payments of health care and veterans benefits, which ultimately could total somewhere between one-and-a-half and seven times the bailout money. Yet as long as the United States remains at war nobody expects to see a decline in military spending. Despite large war costs there is nothing comparable to the end of the Cold War, or the Great Depression that would drive military spending significantly downward. According to Larry Korb, an assistant secretary of defense in the Ronald Reagan administration and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund in Washington, "The budget has been projected to go up. Will it go up as fast as projected is the question?" A similar opinion was given by Steven Kosiak, vice president of Budget Studies, at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Studies. "In the future the budget, at worst, will likely stay flat and grow more slowly than projected. The only real question is what the rate of growth will be."

David Isenberg is an analyst in national and international security affairs, sento@earthlink.net. He is also a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute, contributor to the Straus Military Reform Project, a research fellow at the Independent Institute, and a US Navy veteran. The views expressed are his own.

Lagi Radar US di Israel

Dalam keadaan ekonomi yang semakin gawat & mengecil (shrinking) Kongres tanpa ragu-ragu US meluluskan peruntukan US$89m untuk mengoperasikan radar jarak jauh kepada Israel. Radar ini dioperasikan awal setahun dari jadual asal 2009untuk latihan bersama.

Radar ini dipasang di Pangkalan Udara Nevatim 1, selatan Israel. Radar ini berkuasa mengesan bola baseball sejauh 4700km. Radar ini direka untuk mengesan warhead misil balistik diruang udara Israel kononnya menghadapi ancaman dari Iran. Iktui berita penuh dari Asia Times Online.


More US ears in Israel

By Ardeshir Ommani


At a cost of US$89 million to the American taxpayers, the US Senate, with no hesitation, passed a bill that was attached by Republican Senator Joe Kyle, to the federal defense budget to deploy another sophisticated long-range radar system to Israel. What was the rush that the US military amid the country's financial and economic crisis had to speed up the deployment of a most powerful and therefore expensive system, called AN/TPY-2 forward-based X-band, a year earlier than it was scheduled previously? The X-band system, deployed to Israel on September
26, was originally scheduled for delivery in 2009 for joint training exercises, according to the US European Command mission (EUCOM). For reasons not explained by the US Senate Intelligence Committee, the ownership of Army/Navy Transportable Radar Surveillance remains with Washington and will be installed and operated permanently by 120 US military personnel drawn from US units stationed in Germany and across the rest of Europe. The well-revealed secret of this rush delivery of the X-band radar system lies in the fact that the US has finally come to the realization that with two active wars in Iraq and Afghanistan at hand and an explosive situation in Pakistan, with an 170 million population and a large atomic arsenal, not to mention the ever-deepening financial and economic stranglehold threatening not only the housing but also the banking and industrial sectors of the Western capitalist economies, it has, though unwillingly, resigned itself to taking the war-on-Iran option off the table and beginning a dialogue with an ever-stronger and confident Tehran. It is also a well-known fact that the US is quietly engaged in preliminary fact-finding talks with Iran. This has become a huge source of anxiety for the leaders in Tel Aviv who feel abandoned by Washington or cheaply sold for the benefit of the US. The delivery of an important element of the US Ballistic Missile Defense Shield to Israel a year ahead of schedule goes some way in relaxing the sense of anxiety and desperation with regard to the current US-Iran dialogue and could be considered compensation for Israel's loss of its junior role in shaping American foreign policy in the Middle East region. The radar is to be installed at Israel's Nevatim Air Base1 in the Negev desert in the south of the country, making it the first time that US Army personnel will be permanently stationed in Israel. The type of X-band radar proposed by the US Army works on the same wavelength as a microwave oven. Its tremendous power gives it impressive precision and velocity. It can locate an object the size of a baseball 2,900 miles (4,700 kilometers) away. The X-based radar is designed to track ballistic missile warheads moving through space and provide ground-based missiles with the data needed to intercept them. But serious concerns have been raised for the safety of the communities living near the radar. For example, in the Czech Republic, where a similar type of radar is planned to be installed, 60% of the population remains opposed to the US project, many due to public health concerns. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the radar would serve not only Israel, but also the US military forces in the hemisphere. The radar will be integrated with both the Israeli and the US Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) networks. It is prudent for US citizens to know that prior to the present $89 million gift of radar to Israel, according to stratfor.com, "The now-operational Israeli Arrow Ballistic Missile System (BMD) in all likelihood would not have been possible without US assistance and aid." On one hand, the link between Israel's currently operational Arrow Missiles through the medium of the X-band radar with the US offense and defensive missile system suggests a broad integration of missile defense shields of the two countries. On the other hand, the fact that the US deployed the new radar in separate parts and under the radar shows that the US gave lip-service to Iran, trying to avoid antagonizing it at a time with which it is engaged in complex negotiations. As to the needs, uses and introduction of such radar systems into the Middle East, various scenarios have already been advanced by the US and Israeli sources, some of which are misleading. For example, one story depicts the installation of the radar system and the permanent presence of its American crews as intended to restrain Israel from taking a unilateral military attack against the Iranian nuclear facilities and military establishment. The converse scenario, mostly sponsored by pro-Israel mouthpieces argue that the system is intended to strengthen Israel's defensive ability against Iranian retaliation should Israel or the US decide to attack Iran. The last and most plausible scenario is that the US intends to add one more strategic military base to the other 1,000 military bases that it operates around the world for containing and intimidating independent countries in the region like Iran, Syria and Lebanon. An underground strategic air command post is reportedly located at Nevatim Air Base. Located southeast of Beersheba on the edge of the Negev, this facility was originally built in 1947 as landing strip known as Malhata. In September 1978, Israeli and Egyptian negotiators met with former US president Jimmy Carter at Camp David to negotiate the terms of peace. An agreement was signed in March 1979 which called for the phased withdrawal of all Israeli troops from the Sinai by 1982. The Camp David Accords were matched by American pledges for security assistance for both Israel and Egypt totaling nearly $3 billion. A new airbase, planned and built by Israel with US funding opened October 1983 with two runways - 3,050 meters and 2,440 meters in length. Three of the IDF's key air bases - Ramat David, Tel Nof and Nevatim - are all located close to the pre-1967 ceasefire lines, known as the "Green Line". In July 1998, it was reported that Turkish warplanes are based at Nevatim on a regular basis as part of an agreement between Turkey and Israel. In return, Israeli jets are based in Turkey. The Elrom Company has prepared a study examining the possibility of establishing a second international airport for Israel at Nevatim. An unusual coalition of mayors and citizens of the Dan metropolitan area and the Negev has been formed to lobby for developing Nevatim. Tens of F-16 fighter jets, originating from a base in the south of the country, landed March 31, 2003, at the Nevatim Air Force base. A ceremony for the transfer of the squadron was held in the presence of the Commander of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Dan Halutz. The new squadron will be known as the "Flying Wing". A decade earlier, the Israeli Defense Forces chain of command raised the question of whether or not to close the base at Nevatim as a result of budgetary woes. However, with reception of the new squadron and additional changes in the offing, Nevatim has been transformed into one of largest bases in the country. In June 2003, an additional squadron of F-16's arrived at the base, and plans have been made to receive transport planes. F-16's were introduced to the Israeli Air Force in 1980, and serve as the backbone of the Israeli Air Force. A year after their arrival, the planes were deployed to bomb the Iraqi nuclear reactor. Several of the planes that were moved participated in the attack.



Ardeshir Ommani has been a writer and activist in the anti-war and anti-imperialist struggle for many years, including against the Vietnam War. Ardeshir is a co-founder of the American-Iranian Friendship Committee (AIFC) which strives to build a movement promoting peace and preventing a US-led war on Iran. Ardeshir helped launch the successful www.StopWarOnIran.org campaign, the very first Iran Internet anti-war campaign. Contact info: Ardeshiromm@optonline.net



(Copyright 2008 Ardeshir Ommani.)

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