Anak Negro Jadi Tuan Kulit Putih

1. Akhirnya keputusan pilihanraya Presiden US diketahui. Dunia bersorak gembira meraikan kemenangan Obama. Warga kulit hitam yang dahulunya ditindas warga kulit putih menangis melihat ucapan sulong Obama.


2. Persaingan memancing undi amat sengit. Laporan akhbar menyatakan pungutan suara Obama mendahului Mc Cain. Obama pastinya tidak mahu bersedap - sedap dengan laporan ini lebih - lebih lagi dia pesaingnya bukan kecil anak.


3. Obama dengan imej toleransi & profesional berjaya memikat sokongan kumpulan pertengahan (moderate), orang muda, & kumpulan terpelajar dengan slogannya yang popular - CHANGE ; Yes We Can! Obama dibantu penasihat dari universiti dilihat lebih akademia. Mengukuhkan reputasi, bekas Setiausaha Negara, Collin Powell menyertainya.


4. Mc Cain pula dengan imej veteran perang & senior staf pentadbir memikat sokongan kumpulan konsovertif (enggan berubah), kupulan warga emas, & kumpulan atasan / elitis. Dengan slogan COUNTRY FIRST, dia dilihat orang yang masak dengan kepimpinan & urusan White House / Oval Office. Tidak kurang hebatnya, Mc Cain juga dibantu dengan mantan orang kuat White House Henry Kissingger & Lawrence Eagleburger; bekas Setiausaha Negara manakala Richard Armitage bekas penolong Powell.


5. Begitu daring suasana kempen kali ini. Penganalisis & strategis meneliti siri debat dengan penuh minat kerana pertembungan kali ini akan mencorak landskap ekonomi & politik dunia. Tumpuan utama diberikan dalam 2 isu utama; ekonomi & dasar luar.


6. Obama menampakkan sikap berlembut dengan Iran, Cuba & seteru politik Amerika tetapi tidak kepada Pakistan. Manakala Mc Cain meneruskan dasar unilateral, konsovertif & Bush's Doctrine.


7. Obama menampakkan harapan tidak akan berlaku perang seterusnya bahkan dia telah menyediakan pelan pengunduran tentera dari Iraq. Tetapi tentera ini akan dihantar ke Afghanistan untuk memburu Osama & Taliban. Dia & Mc Cain juga telah memberikan undi menyokong belanjawan tentera 2009 berjumlah US$612b yang tujuan utamanya menampung Perang Iraq & Afghan. Dimana pendiriannya yang sebenar?


8. Mc Cain tetap berpendirian unilateral & akan meneruskan Bush's Doctrine. Perang akan menjana ekonomi. Jika Iran dapat ditawan sumber minyak akan tetap terjamin (seperti yang dilakukan kepada Iraq). Jika Mc Cain menang, apakah Mc Cain akan komited berperang atau depresi ekonomi akan memaksanya memikirkan hal dalaman sahaja? Sebuah kapal perang telah dihantar ke Georgia atas 'misi kemanusiaan'. 1000 Humvee sedang dipasang di Pakistan untuk dikerjakan ke Afghan. Senjata & misil bernilai puluhan juta US$ dijual ke Taiwan atas inisiatif Wolfowitz dengan niat menggalakkan perlumbaan senjata dengan China.


9. Dalam isu Israel - Palestin kedua-dua calon sekata - We Stand With Israel. Presiden US tidak boleh menentang dasar sedia ada. Dalam sejarah Presiden US, hanya seorang sahaja Presiden yang menentang Israel. Tidak lama kemudian dia dipaksa meletakkan jawatan setelah melalui pelbagai provokasi oleh kumpulan pelobi Yahudi (Jewish Lobby).


10. Calon Presiden juga harus mendapat sokongan kuat pelobi Yahudi atas sebab kuasa undi Yahudi, dana kempen pilihanraya & kegiatan pelobi sendiri yang telah berakar umbi dalam pentadbiran US.


11. Sebenarnya rakyat Amerika tidak begitu gemar keluar mengundi. Peratus keluar mengundi biasanya pada lingkungan 40% - 50% sahaja. Hanya pilihanraya 2004 & kali ini peratusnya mencapai 55%. Yang tidak melepaskan peluang menundi ialah yahudi. Mereka akan 'dinasihati" oleh strategis Jewish Lobby mana calon yang perlu dipilih.


12. Dana kempen pilihanraya banyaknya datang dari usahawan yahudi. Dilaporkan pada pilihanraya 2004, 55% dari dana kempen Republikan diterima dari syarikat yahudi manakala Demokrat 40%.


13. Intelligent & strategis Jewish Lobby telah lama bertapak, berakar & memainkan peranan penting dalam 'meansihati Kongres' & lain - lain hal pentadbiran US.


14. Dapat kita perhatikan dalam isu Israel ini amat sukar dipisahkan dalam perjalanan politik seorang Presiden US. Bahkan untuk mengukuhkan pendirian calon, ia perlu melawat Israael supaya mereka dapat merasakan sendiri suasana keselamatan negara Yahudi. dan ini yang dilakukan setiap calon Presiden termasuk Obama sendiri.


15. Para penganalisis berpendapat Demokrat akan kembali pada dasarnya tradisinya yang mengasingkan Israel dari pentadbiran. Tetapi adakah mungkin?


16. Dalam hal ekonomi kedua - dua calon gagal menunjukkan pelan sebenar mengukuhkan ekonomi. Barangkali mereka ingin menyembunyikan hakikat yang Amerika bakal menghadapi recessi, depressi dan bakal menyusul hyper inflasi. Ini diakui oleh bekas Gabenor Bank Pusat, Alan Greenspan; katanya dana US$700b tak mungkin dapat menyekat recessi. (Alan Greenspan dianngap Tuhan Ekonomi / God of Economy kerana pengalamannya)


17. Lain - lain hal yang dicanang Obama ialah tenaga alternatif (white energy) dan blue energy (elektrik). Penemuan ni memakan masa dan pelaburan walaupun tidak mustahil. Tetapi tidak ditentukan peruntukannya.


18. Saya amat gembira dengan kemenangan Obama. Tetapi cakap lebih mudah dari melaksanakan. I hope he can convey his promises - C H A N G E - Yes We Can !

Maaf berita tak update

Sudah 2 minggu PDA saya rosak. Dengan ini sukar untuk saya meneliti berita, membuat draf dan lain-lain hal berkaitan IT. Blog juga sukar untuk diupdate kerana masa yang terhad dengan internet; memberi maklum balas, menanyakan kemuskilan pada yang pakar memilih berita & banyak hal yang perlu diselesaikan dalam masa 1jam30min dengan internet. Pilihanraya Presiden US, US Recession, masalah ekonomi Malaysia, & banyak lagi yang ingin dikongsikan dalam masa yang terhad. Bagaimanapun saya bersyukur kerana masih sempat membaca berita yang saya cetak.
Maaf Assalamualaikum

US Teruskan Ketenteraan Walaupun Menghadapi Resessi

Saya tak tahu nak bahasakan kebijaksanaan ahli Kongres US - Ultra Bijak / Maha Bijak @ Bodoh lagi Dungu. Dalam perbahasan & undian kali pertama bantuan menyelamat US$700b majoriti Kongres menolak usul ini kerana bimbang bantahan pembayar cukai. Pada 24 Sept 08 Kongres meluluskan bil peruntukan belanjawan pertahanan berjumlah US$612b. 392 undi menyokong & 39 menentang.

Belanjawan ini meliputi kos operasi di Iraq-Afghan, pembangunan misil baru, intelligence dll. Jika difokuskan kelengkapan ketenteraan; Misil nuklear dalam Jabatan Tenaga, Jabatan Negara, Kebajikan Pesara Tentera semua sekali melebihi trillion dollar setahun.

Dalam ucapan Setiausaha Pertahanan di Universiti Pertahanan Washington, Robert Gates berkata "pertahanan harus memahami had kuasa tempur dan pemimpin harus melihat teknologi dapat memenuhi keperluan medan perang" bermaksud perang akan terus menjadi komitmen utama mereka. Kekuatan misil & alat tempur bukan lagi pilihan perdaganan negara - negara 'bebas' seperti Malaysia, Iran Cuba dan sewaktu dengannya. Ini kerana misil dan alat tempur Amerika dikawal dengan source code. Fungsi source code ini ialah meng-disable kan alat tersebut dari berfungsi. Contohnya 8 unit Hornet F-18 yang dibeli TUDM tidak boleh membawa misil sama sekali. Termasuk misil uadara - udara AIM 120 yang dibeli dari Amerika hanya jadi perhiasan saja!
Paling teruk usul ini disokong juga oleh 2 calon Running President, Obama & Mc Cain. Bajet akan terus menaik setiap tahun. Tapi mencipta adakah lebih banyak misil akan mewujudkan keamanan dimuka bumi? Ekonomi Amerika diramal terus merosot kerana masalah inflasi akan menyusul selepas ini (stagnant + inflation = stagflation). Dengan tercetaknya dollar begitu banyak sehingga tidak bersandarkan nilai emas, masalah hyper inflasi pula akan menyusul. Dari komen, blog, majalah ekonomi & lain-lain sumber, saya meramalkan nilai dollar akan menyusut lagi apabila negara Arab menggunakan Euro. Dengan harga minyak mentah yang semakin menurun, kegiatan spekulasi yang didalangi broker Amerika terus mencatatkan kerugian; menurunnya hasil cukai kepada kerajaan. Jika Amerika terus bermain api dengan China, apa akan jadi jika China menjual kembali 1 trillion simpanan dollarnya?
Ikuti berita penuh dari Asia Times Online.

The US military's fallout shelter
By David Isenberg

WASHINGTON - Some people may think one consequence of the ongoing United States financial crisis would be increased pressure for cuts in military spending. But that is unlikely to happen. While the crisis will increase fiscal pressure to reduce military spending, as it is the largest pot of discretionary funding in the federal budget, other countervailing political factors will ensure that there likely will be no significant reduction. Consider that on September 24, during the fight over the Wall Street bailout, the House of Representatives passed by a vote of 392-39 a $612 billion defense authorization bill for 2009, which includes both baseline military spending and funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and other counter-terrorism operations. The fact that the bill was approved without public or congressional protest indicates there is unlikely to be any significant pressure to cut military or related national security spending. The latter category includes nuclear weapons spending at the Energy Department, plus the State Department, as well as Veterans Affairs, and the intelligence agencies. All together that totals exceeds a trillion dollars annually. It is a truism, but the primary reason for continued high levels of military spending is that the United States is at war. Unlike the situation at the end of the 1980s and early 1990s, no factors are comparable with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, which drove a significant reduction in US military spending. Today, the situation is reversed. The United States is fighting the "war on terror" and politically both the incumbent administration and the opposition party are reluctant to cut military spending at such a time. In fact, nothing in the campaign platforms of either Republican Senator John McCain or Democratic Senator Barack Obama suggests they plan to significantly reduce military spending. McCain says the United States must enlarge the size of its armed forces. That alone will guarantee that operational and support costs, traditionally one of the highest categories of US military spending, stay high. Likewise, Obama supports plans to increase the size of the army by 65,000 soldiers and the marines by 27,000 troops. Finally, there is the longstanding congressional tradition that by voting for more military spending, they are providing "jobs" for their economy, not to mention their constituents, as a more general Keynesian pump-priming mechanism. It is true, however, that some military officials see the administration-proposed financial bailout of Wall Street as a direct threat to the military budget. Pentagon comptroller Tina Jonas said the US financial crisis may lead to lower defense budgets and more public demand for accountability over spending. "Any crisis of this nature is going to affect - must affect - other federal spending," Jonas, the Defense Department's top money official since July 2004, said on September 26 in an interview on her last day in office. Any analysis that suggested defense budgets would escape impact was too sanguine, she added. Yet a few days later she said the US military wanted an increase of $57 billion in fiscal 2010, about 13.5% more than this year's budget of $514.3 billion. While that request would include costs that to date have been paid by supplemental appropriations it would still be a real increase. In the long term, another factor that could reduce spending is a step away from the technology heavy hardware which was a mainstay during former defense secretary's Donald Rumsfeld's tenure. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a speech on September 29 at the National Defense University in Washington that the military must understand the limits of combat power and its leaders must be skeptical that technology can bring order to the battlefield. He cautioned against efforts to reorganize the Pentagon around buzzwords like "transformation", and challenged those who advocate investing in smaller numbers of higher-technology weapons in a belief that war can be revolutionized. "Be modest about what military force can accomplish, and what technology can accomplish." Gates said the Pentagon had placed too much emphasis on high-technology weapons systems aimed at potential state adversaries such as China and Russia, which take years to develop. He noted that the 2009 budget contained more than $180 billion for such conventional systems. Given US military dominance in air, land and sea power, the Pentagon can safely shift away from building small numbers of highly advanced ships, aircraft and other systems and instead purchase larger quantities of simpler, cheaper equipment. Army secretary Pete Geren, a former four-term congressman from Texas, also cautioned last Monday that the proposed $700 billion rescue plan could take a toll on the army's budget in the coming years. The financial crisis could exacerbate the fact that defense budgets traditionally are cut drastically at the end of wars, he said. Because of its high personnel costs, the army does not have the flexibility of other services to spend on new weapons systems. Thus it will face substantial pressure to cut back on its troubled flagship modernization program, the Future Combat Systems, and its new helicopter programs. Last week, as it has each year since the mid-1990s, the US Army sent its "wish list" (in which it seeks to supplement its own budget with "extracurricular" money) that it, as well as the other services, sends to Congress each year after. Given that it bears the largest share of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the army only sought $3.9 billion. Although, when you take into account the amount by which the 2009 army budget already has been increased over and above the extrapolated 2001 plan for 2009 it is apparent that the army actually is seeking a $54.5 billion "wish list plus-up". Even so, the army leadership said it would seek larger overall budget requests in future years. Ironically, this indicates that the basis for each of the services' "plus-ups" is not war-related; instead they are an artifact of the post-September 11, 2001, political environment. Specifically, as noted above, in times of war politicians in the executive branch and Congress are willing to support a generally rising tide of defense spending, even when it is not spent on problem areas, such as a smaller force structure or reduced readiness. Even if the US withdraws a large number of its forces from Iraq relatively soon, the costs will continue to rise for some time. The war in Iraq will cost far more in the next year than the Iraq portion of that $68.6 billion Congress has provided in the in the new military. Thus, some time in 2009, the direct costs of the war there, that the Bush administration once predicted would cost perhaps $50-60 billion in total, will cost more than $800 billion, or $100 billion above the cost (in the best-case scenario) of the bailout of the financial system now being proposed in Washington. This excludes long-term costs such as payments of health care and veterans benefits, which ultimately could total somewhere between one-and-a-half and seven times the bailout money. Yet as long as the United States remains at war nobody expects to see a decline in military spending. Despite large war costs there is nothing comparable to the end of the Cold War, or the Great Depression that would drive military spending significantly downward. According to Larry Korb, an assistant secretary of defense in the Ronald Reagan administration and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund in Washington, "The budget has been projected to go up. Will it go up as fast as projected is the question?" A similar opinion was given by Steven Kosiak, vice president of Budget Studies, at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Studies. "In the future the budget, at worst, will likely stay flat and grow more slowly than projected. The only real question is what the rate of growth will be."

David Isenberg is an analyst in national and international security affairs, sento@earthlink.net. He is also a member of the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute, contributor to the Straus Military Reform Project, a research fellow at the Independent Institute, and a US Navy veteran. The views expressed are his own.

Lagi Radar US di Israel

Dalam keadaan ekonomi yang semakin gawat & mengecil (shrinking) Kongres tanpa ragu-ragu US meluluskan peruntukan US$89m untuk mengoperasikan radar jarak jauh kepada Israel. Radar ini dioperasikan awal setahun dari jadual asal 2009untuk latihan bersama.

Radar ini dipasang di Pangkalan Udara Nevatim 1, selatan Israel. Radar ini berkuasa mengesan bola baseball sejauh 4700km. Radar ini direka untuk mengesan warhead misil balistik diruang udara Israel kononnya menghadapi ancaman dari Iran. Iktui berita penuh dari Asia Times Online.


More US ears in Israel

By Ardeshir Ommani


At a cost of US$89 million to the American taxpayers, the US Senate, with no hesitation, passed a bill that was attached by Republican Senator Joe Kyle, to the federal defense budget to deploy another sophisticated long-range radar system to Israel. What was the rush that the US military amid the country's financial and economic crisis had to speed up the deployment of a most powerful and therefore expensive system, called AN/TPY-2 forward-based X-band, a year earlier than it was scheduled previously? The X-band system, deployed to Israel on September
26, was originally scheduled for delivery in 2009 for joint training exercises, according to the US European Command mission (EUCOM). For reasons not explained by the US Senate Intelligence Committee, the ownership of Army/Navy Transportable Radar Surveillance remains with Washington and will be installed and operated permanently by 120 US military personnel drawn from US units stationed in Germany and across the rest of Europe. The well-revealed secret of this rush delivery of the X-band radar system lies in the fact that the US has finally come to the realization that with two active wars in Iraq and Afghanistan at hand and an explosive situation in Pakistan, with an 170 million population and a large atomic arsenal, not to mention the ever-deepening financial and economic stranglehold threatening not only the housing but also the banking and industrial sectors of the Western capitalist economies, it has, though unwillingly, resigned itself to taking the war-on-Iran option off the table and beginning a dialogue with an ever-stronger and confident Tehran. It is also a well-known fact that the US is quietly engaged in preliminary fact-finding talks with Iran. This has become a huge source of anxiety for the leaders in Tel Aviv who feel abandoned by Washington or cheaply sold for the benefit of the US. The delivery of an important element of the US Ballistic Missile Defense Shield to Israel a year ahead of schedule goes some way in relaxing the sense of anxiety and desperation with regard to the current US-Iran dialogue and could be considered compensation for Israel's loss of its junior role in shaping American foreign policy in the Middle East region. The radar is to be installed at Israel's Nevatim Air Base1 in the Negev desert in the south of the country, making it the first time that US Army personnel will be permanently stationed in Israel. The type of X-band radar proposed by the US Army works on the same wavelength as a microwave oven. Its tremendous power gives it impressive precision and velocity. It can locate an object the size of a baseball 2,900 miles (4,700 kilometers) away. The X-based radar is designed to track ballistic missile warheads moving through space and provide ground-based missiles with the data needed to intercept them. But serious concerns have been raised for the safety of the communities living near the radar. For example, in the Czech Republic, where a similar type of radar is planned to be installed, 60% of the population remains opposed to the US project, many due to public health concerns. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, the radar would serve not only Israel, but also the US military forces in the hemisphere. The radar will be integrated with both the Israeli and the US Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) networks. It is prudent for US citizens to know that prior to the present $89 million gift of radar to Israel, according to stratfor.com, "The now-operational Israeli Arrow Ballistic Missile System (BMD) in all likelihood would not have been possible without US assistance and aid." On one hand, the link between Israel's currently operational Arrow Missiles through the medium of the X-band radar with the US offense and defensive missile system suggests a broad integration of missile defense shields of the two countries. On the other hand, the fact that the US deployed the new radar in separate parts and under the radar shows that the US gave lip-service to Iran, trying to avoid antagonizing it at a time with which it is engaged in complex negotiations. As to the needs, uses and introduction of such radar systems into the Middle East, various scenarios have already been advanced by the US and Israeli sources, some of which are misleading. For example, one story depicts the installation of the radar system and the permanent presence of its American crews as intended to restrain Israel from taking a unilateral military attack against the Iranian nuclear facilities and military establishment. The converse scenario, mostly sponsored by pro-Israel mouthpieces argue that the system is intended to strengthen Israel's defensive ability against Iranian retaliation should Israel or the US decide to attack Iran. The last and most plausible scenario is that the US intends to add one more strategic military base to the other 1,000 military bases that it operates around the world for containing and intimidating independent countries in the region like Iran, Syria and Lebanon. An underground strategic air command post is reportedly located at Nevatim Air Base. Located southeast of Beersheba on the edge of the Negev, this facility was originally built in 1947 as landing strip known as Malhata. In September 1978, Israeli and Egyptian negotiators met with former US president Jimmy Carter at Camp David to negotiate the terms of peace. An agreement was signed in March 1979 which called for the phased withdrawal of all Israeli troops from the Sinai by 1982. The Camp David Accords were matched by American pledges for security assistance for both Israel and Egypt totaling nearly $3 billion. A new airbase, planned and built by Israel with US funding opened October 1983 with two runways - 3,050 meters and 2,440 meters in length. Three of the IDF's key air bases - Ramat David, Tel Nof and Nevatim - are all located close to the pre-1967 ceasefire lines, known as the "Green Line". In July 1998, it was reported that Turkish warplanes are based at Nevatim on a regular basis as part of an agreement between Turkey and Israel. In return, Israeli jets are based in Turkey. The Elrom Company has prepared a study examining the possibility of establishing a second international airport for Israel at Nevatim. An unusual coalition of mayors and citizens of the Dan metropolitan area and the Negev has been formed to lobby for developing Nevatim. Tens of F-16 fighter jets, originating from a base in the south of the country, landed March 31, 2003, at the Nevatim Air Force base. A ceremony for the transfer of the squadron was held in the presence of the Commander of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Dan Halutz. The new squadron will be known as the "Flying Wing". A decade earlier, the Israeli Defense Forces chain of command raised the question of whether or not to close the base at Nevatim as a result of budgetary woes. However, with reception of the new squadron and additional changes in the offing, Nevatim has been transformed into one of largest bases in the country. In June 2003, an additional squadron of F-16's arrived at the base, and plans have been made to receive transport planes. F-16's were introduced to the Israeli Air Force in 1980, and serve as the backbone of the Israeli Air Force. A year after their arrival, the planes were deployed to bomb the Iraqi nuclear reactor. Several of the planes that were moved participated in the attack.



Ardeshir Ommani has been a writer and activist in the anti-war and anti-imperialist struggle for many years, including against the Vietnam War. Ardeshir is a co-founder of the American-Iranian Friendship Committee (AIFC) which strives to build a movement promoting peace and preventing a US-led war on Iran. Ardeshir helped launch the successful www.StopWarOnIran.org campaign, the very first Iran Internet anti-war campaign. Contact info: Ardeshiromm@optonline.net



(Copyright 2008 Ardeshir Ommani.)

Raya 2008

Gambar Kenangan Raya 2008 diKampung Laneh

pedih asap laa weeeei. takde orang tolong aku kee?

da letih mandi batu hampar dulu


lamee lagi ke nak berbuke ke? selamat hari raya

Sudahlah Tu Anwar

Dalam keadaan Malaysia menghadapi cabaran global 3F (fuel, financial & food) cabaran dalaman berlaku dengan amat mencabar apabila Anwar Ibrahim berusaha menumbangkan kerajaan Barisan Nasional yang mendapat kemenangan majoriti oleh rakyat. Sejak bebas dari hukuman penjara Anwar lebih gemar memburukkan musuh - musuh politiknya dan memburukkan institusi Malaysia di mata media asing. Polis, ISA, DEB, kehakiman adalaah antara perkara yang dikritiknya sebegitu buruk tanpa menyedari dia tidak pernah menyatakan masalah ini ketika menjadi orang kuat kerajaan. Terbaru hospital juga dituduh tidak telus apabila dia diminta menyerahkan sampel DNAnya sebagai bahan siasatan kes liwat keatas Saiful.

Indeks BSKL berada dibawah 1000 mata ketika berita ini ditulis

Dalam keadaan politik yang bercempera wakil industri & pelabur asing menghantar laporan kepada HQ & negara asal mereka yang keadaan Malaysia tidak begitu sesuai untuk menambah paburan mereka sekarang. Tunggulah sehingga akhir tahun ini kalau keadaan dah stabil. Oleh kerana gila talak nak jadi PM Anwar tak hiraukan apa kaedah & kesannya. Hatta menawarkan rasuah terhadap ahli parlimen BN. Anwar gagal meyakinkan ahli-ahli parlimen untuk melompat ke Pakatan Rakyat dalam igauan 16 Sept nya. Dalam sidang parlimen 13 okt 08 yang akan datang Anwar akan membuat tindakan luar kotak nya; undi tak percaya kepada PM. Jika Anwar berjaya, saya ingin berkongsi fikiran Datuk Kadir Jasin antaranya

• Anwar memimpin kerajaan yang lemah kerana tidak mampu mendapat 2/3 majority.


• dia perlu buat pilihanraya lebih awal kerana dia sentiasa dihantui spekulasi dia hanya meng-hijack kerajaan BN


• MP yang melompat akan bersifat dummy - akhirnya akan berfikir untuk menyertai BN semula. Dummy disini bukan ertinya bodoh tetapi dalam syarat Karnough Map ertiya boleh bersifat 2 keadaan (PR @ BN).

Anwar juga akan menghadapi tentangan agresif dari penyokong BN kerana tindakannya yang tidak bermoral. Apa pun kita bertenang, berdoa & bersabar menanti berita gembira

Anwar Plays A Waiting Game In Malaysia
By Anil Netto
PENANG - Malaysia's political opposition insists its plan to topple Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's government is still on track, as doubts emerge about the credibility of those claims after it missed two self-set deadlines for ushering in political change. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim had set September 16, Malaysia's national day, as the deadline for his People's Alliance coalition to take over the federal government through parliamentary defections to his camp. When that deadline passed, with Anwar claiming he had the required number of parliamentary defections secured, he set a new September 23 deadline for Abdullah to call an emergency sitting of parliament to hold a no-confidence motion he claimed would bring down the government. Abdullah has ridiculed those calls and refused Anwar's request to meet so that the latter can show him a purported list of parliamentarians who have committed to leave the coalition government and join forces with the opposition. Anwar has repeatedly told the press that his alliance has the minimum 31 defections he needs to secure a simple majority in parliament, though he has declined to reveal the names of the turncoat parliamentarians. The only snag, from his perspective, is that Abdullah will delay reconvening the legislature to debate a no-confidence motion on his rule. The political uncertainty is starting to take a toll on the economy and investor confidence. Foreign direct investment flows had already turned negative for 2007 for the first time in the country's 50-year history, according to the 2008 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report, released this week. Inflation hit a 27-year high of 8.5% in August, adding fuel to the population's discontent with the United Malays Nasional Organization (UMNO)-led government. Abdullah has repeatedly accused Anwar of causing instability and undermining the economy. Anwar has countered that the economic problems stem from Abdullah's failure to introduce meaningful economic reforms. Anwar now needs to tread a delicate constitutional line if he wants to avoid giving an already jittery ruling coalition a pretext for striking back through a more forceful crackdown. This month, an opposition politician, a journalist and an anti-government blogger were all detained under the Internal Security Act (ISA), which allows for indefinite detention without trial. The opposition leader is now believed to have two political options: seek an audience with the Agong, Malaysia's paramount constitutional monarch, or wait for parliament to reconvene as scheduled from its recess on October 13. Finding that his path to power is strewn with obstacles, Anwar has not committed to any new deadlines for a change in government. The state-influenced mainstream media have ridiculed the passing of his previous deadlines and some feel those missed marks have damaged his credibility. Others more sympathetic to the opposition charge point out that it will not be easy to dislodge the UMNO-led coalition, which has held power for 51 years, during which time it has blurred the lines between party and government. Anwar's proponents say that September 16 heralded the beginning of a political transition that eventually will lead to UMNO's demise. Intra-party turmoilTwo crucial dates now loom: October 9, when regional divisions of UMNO begin to nominate candidates for top party posts that will be up for grabs during the party's December internal elections, and October 13, when parliament is scheduled to reconvene. Under siege within his own party after the ruling coalition suffered a major setback at March general elections and now held responsible for a listless economy, Abdullah finds himself in an increasingly tight political spot. He recently hammered out a transition plan to hand over power to his deputy, Najib Abdul Razak, by 2010. He has since indicated he could leave earlier, and in an apparent move to appease his deputy he swapped portfolios with him, handing finance to Najib while Abdullah took over defense. Whether the ambitious Najib, who has been dogged by allegations linking him to the murder of a Mongolian woman, which he has denied, will be content with the minor reshuffle is still unclear. Despite the transition plan, there appears to be a groundswell of sentiment within UMNO that would prefer Abdullah to leave much sooner than he would prefer. The party has called an emergency supreme council meeting for Friday, sparking fresh speculation that change could be in the offing. This sentiment is also coming from some of the reactionary forces within UMNO, which are believed to be inspired by former premier and party leader Mahathir Mohamad. Mahathir formally quit the party in May, but he is now said to be contemplating a return. He was reported to be backing former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah's bid for the UMNO presidency, which will be decided in December. Mahathir's son, Mukhriz Mahathir, is also reported to be eyeing the leadership of UMNO's powerful youth wing. He will likely run up against Abdullah's ambitious son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, and former Selangor state chief minister Mohamad Khir Toyo for that post. The political transition could speed up if Abdullah fails to secure enough nominations for the UMNO presidency from the party's various divisions, whose elections are due to run from October to November. To receive the nomination, he needs to secure the nod from at least 30%, or 58 divisions, of UMNO's 191 party divisions across the country. With his mounting political troubles, not everyone is convinced he can pull it off. Meanwhile, in the midst of the political uncertainty, the arrests and detention without trial of a senior Selangor state government official from the People's Alliance, a Chinese newspaper journalist, the editor of a popular Internet news portal and a blogger have sent a chill down the spines of many Malaysians. Three of them have been released, but Malaysia Today website editor Raja Petra Kamarudin was sent this week to the Kamunting detention camp, where he will serve two years under the renewable order of Home Minister Syed Hamid Albar. The government's use of the ISA against perceived political opponents has sparked outrage among many Malaysians and rare protests among ruling coalition politicians, one of whom quit his position as law minister over the arrests. Raja Petra, whose website commands a huge following, is seen as something of a folk hero in Malaysia for his frequent exposes of official corruption and abuse of power. Some of his readers believe he was detained to give UMNO leaders a break from his widely read criticisms in the run-up to their party polls - though the official reason given was that his articles insulted Islam and were a threat to national security. Malaysians have signed online petitions, mailed greeting cards to detainees, participated in candlelight vigils in public places and flocked to prayer services in several places of worship. The arrests have arguably swung public opinion further against the ruling coalition and Abdullah's fast-waning moral authority. Whether Anwar's alliance can capitalize on that sentiment and establish a new reformist government could be determined by UMNO's and Abdullah's next moves.

Anil Netto is a Penang-based writer.

Akhirnya Kesan Krisis Subprima Merebak keEropah

3 hari ni dilaporkan beberapa bank diEropah mula terkesan dengan krisis subprima. Tamparan dari sikap tamak mereka mendakwa keadaan terkawal. Walaupun undian terbaru Senat Kongres US bersetuju dengan bantuan menyelamat, dipihak sebelah lain pula menyindir Senat dengan slogan We Broke It You Fix It. Terbaru UniBank Itali diselamatkan oleh kerajaan. Bradford & Bentley diselamatkan oleh UK, Dexia diselamatkan oleh Belgium, Luxembourg & France. Fortis UK juga menerima nasib yang sama. Diramalkan 100 bank diUS bakal gulung tikar jika tiada pelan menyelamat.
Seharusnya pengurus bank ini memikir semula sikap tamak mereka apabila melibatkan diri dengan kegiatan subprima - lintah darat. Untuk meneruskan finance mereka harus berkorban termasuk momotong gaji dan elaun mereka. Sistem lintah darat pula perlu kembali kepada sistem yang lebih adil supaya faedah akan berbalik kepada rakyat. Obviously mereka menekan peminjam (rakyat) yang tersepit memerlukan bantuan. Dengan mengenakan syarat pinjaman yang longgar, premium tinggi, faedah 15% sehingga 40% bank memancing peminjam yang berisiko. Peminjam yang tidak berkemampuan menghadapi faedah yang tinggi kerap kali gagal menjelaskan pinjaman. Bank menarik cagaran / gadaian peminjam (kereta, tanah, rumah dsb). Dengan susutnya nilai hartanah menyulitkan bank membuat lelongan. Akhirnya bank menyimpan terlalu banyak stok likat dan rendah pula stok cair (liquidity). Ulasan saya bakal bersambung di masa akan datang InsyaAllah.
Ikuti berita penuh dari Aljazeera.


Europe's Financial Crisis Spreads
Bradford & Bingley is the second bank the UK government has nationalised this year [AFP]
European governments have announced a flurry of bank bail-outs - but the rescue deals have only heightened fears that the contagion from the US credit crisis has much further to run.
Stock markets fell heavily and money markets remained frozen as banks continued to refuse to lend to each other on Monday, hours before US politicians rejected a $700bn bail-out package.
As US politicians debated the rescue of their own banks, the governments of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg took partial control late on Sunday of struggling bank Fortis NV, while Britain seized control of mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley early on Monday.
Germany organized a credit lifeline for blue-chip commercial real estate lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, while Iceland's government took over Glitnir bank, the country's third-largest lender.
Howard Archer, the chief European economist at Global Insight, an economics research company, said: "We live in vicious times.
"In the near term, it will be the weak ones that will be picked off.
"But, obviously, the more the turmoil and dislocation continues, the further this could spread."
Market plunges Despite the concerted attempt by European authorities to shore-up confidence, stock markets closed down heavily on Monday.
The London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 dropped 5.3 per cent, Germany's DAX fell 4.23 per cent and France's CAC 40 shed 5.04 per cent
The series of bail-outs began over the weekend when Fortis, the Dutch-Belgian banking giant, was partially nationalised.
The $16.4bn rescue package was organised by the governments of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, after investor confidence in Fortis disappeared last week.
Reflecting the seriousness of the bail-out, Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank president, attended the negotiations in Brussels.
In the UK, the government took over Bradford & Bingley's $91bn of mortgage and loans and paid out $33bn to facilitate the sale of its savings business, including its entire retail branch network, to Spain's Banco Santander.
It is the second bank that the British government has had to nationalise this year.
Collapse fears
In Iceland, the government took control of Glitnir bank, buying a 75 per cent stake for $878m.
David Oddsson, the chairman of the country's central bank, said the bank, which has operations in 10 countries, would have collapsed if the authorities had not intervened.
Meanwhile, in Germany, Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, the country's number two commercial property lender, was forced to secure a line of credit of up to $51.2bn.
Analysts are closely watching Dexia, a French-Belgian specialist in lending to local governments, that ran up huge losses in its US operations.
The bank had no comment on a report it was planning a rapid capital increase but said the board would meet Monday night to assess the situation.
Yves LeTerme, Belgium's prime minister, called a cabinet meeting on Monday to discuss the company's future.


Europe Fights To Calm Markets
Madrid's IBEX stock market fell amid continuing uncertainty in Europe[AFP]
Governments across Europe have continued to prop up the battered financial sector, with Dexia, the Belgian-French financial services group, receiving more than $9bn from the Belgian, French and Luxembourg treasuries.
Facing the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, global central banks scrambled again on Tuesday to try to relieve a severe squeeze in money markets by more than doubling the amount of funding to $620 billion.
In Ireland, the government announced a blanket guarantee for savings held by its banks, covering up to $575bn in liabilities.
France, which had joined Belgium and Luxembourg in offering the lifeline to Dexia, which has run up huge losses in its US operations, said it would come to the aid of savers with new bank measures by the end of the week.
Shares in the bank, which specialises in lending to local governments, had fallen 30% on Monday before being suspended on Tuesday as the rescue plan was announced.
'Market meltdown'
Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, began talks on the global crisis with finance executives on Tuesday and said he will meet this week with officials from Europe's other G8 member states, Germany, Britain and Italy to discuss the issue.
Dariusz Kowalczyk, the chief strategist at broker CFC Seymour, said: "Market meltdown is likely to continue unless an alternative [US] plan is passed, which may or may not happen this week."
Seeking to reassure investors, Christian Noyer, a European central bank governing council member, said: "There is no reason to be frightened and to give in to panic.
"I don't say there won't be things that will appear in the accounts that are published in the next weeks or months, but there is no drama in front of us."
The French government said the bailout was necessary to "guarantee continuity of funding for local authorities".
Trading suspended
Across Europe, stock markets remained volatile after a $700bn financial bailout plan in the United States was rejected by the House of Representatives.
The Frankfurt exchange was down 1.37 per cent in afternoon trading on Tuesday, the Paris CAC 40 had shed 0.51 per cent, the Madrid IBEX had fallen 1.09 per cent and the Moscow RTS was down 0.92 per cent.
After initially plunging on opening, London's FTSE 100 recovered and oscillated between a loss of three per cent and a gain of 0.77 throughout the day.
In Russia, the Moscow stock market was briefly suspended seconds after trading began, the second time the measure has had to be taken in a month.
The Kremlin also announced it was placing a ban on the short-selling of shares.